By Andrew Wong (V)
Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst faces an uphill battle in Iowa for re-election as she campaigns against Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield. Polls show the two candidates to be neck and neck as the election heads into its final days, with Greenfield slightly ahead. UVA’s non-partisan Crystal Ball, a website run by UVA political scientists that predicts outcomes of election races, recently moved the Iowa senate race from a “Toss Up” category to “Leans Democratic.” (Click here if you would like to learn more on their website). In fundraising, Senator Ernst trails behind Greenfield, with Greenfield’s third quarter fundraising numbers almost four times those of Ernst. This shift in polls has not gone unnoticed. Democrats, hoping to exploit this lead, have poured millions of dollars into the Iowa Senate race; Republicans, on the other hand, are using funds to shore up support for Ernst, while getting President Trump to stump for her at several Iowa rallies.
As the election heads into its final stretch, both candidates are reaching to Iowa’s core voters: farmers. Ernst is wildly popular amongst farmers, as she supports cutting regulations on ethanol and corn based biofuels (Iowa is the largest producer of biofuels). Along with this, her military background and the legislative accomplishments of her first term boost her reputation even more. Meanwhile, Greenfield has campaigned as a political outsider; she has painted Ernst as out of touch with average Iowan voters. At a recent debate, when pressed to name the price of a bushel of corn, Greenfield was able to correctly name the price of corn at $3.68. When asked to identify the price of a bushel of soybeans, Ernst stumbled on the question, guessing the price to be $5.50 a bushel (the actual price is around $10).
A flip of Iowa’s senate seat could be disastrous for Republicans, who are struggling to hold onto a 53-47 majority in the Senate. As both candidates seek the support of rural voters, the race will come down to the last few days.