By Shaan Lehal (IV) and Max Watzky (IV)
From Sunday, October 25, to Friday, October 30, Vital Signs conducted a mock presidential election at Pingry. Upper School students and faculty members were polled on a variety of questions regarding the upcoming November 3rd election, including their choices for president of the United States.
Of the 162 students and faculty members who responded to the poll, 95 (58.6%) chose Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 37 (22.8%) chose Republican nominee Donald Trump, 22 (13.7%) chose other candidates, and 8 (4.9%) were undecided. Among those who selected other candidates, 8 (4.9%) chose Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen and 11 (6.8%) chose Birthday Party nominee Kanye West, with the rest writing in various other candidates, such as themselves or Finn the dog.
Joe Biden’s overwhelming lead remained firm when the results were weighted based on participants’ grade or status as a faculty member, with 57.5% of the vote going to Biden compared to 24.3% for President Trump. Joe Biden held a 26 point lead with freshman, a 35 point lead with sophomores, a 40 point lead with juniors, and a 15 point lead with seniors. While students tilted heavily towards Joe Biden, faculty members were nearly unanimous in their support for him, with 21 (77.8%) of the 27 faculty respondents backing the former Vice President.
When asked to justify their response, many supporters of both major candidates drew upon the need for stable leadership during this time of crises. Biden supporters argued that their candidate is presidential and compassionate, while Trump supporters asserted that Biden isn’t mentally fit for the presidency. Others expressed frustration at what they perceived as two bad options. One Biden supporter described their choice as picking between the “lesser of two evils,” while another said they were “settling” for Biden. While Trump supporters were generally more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden supporters, some still expressed disdain at their choices. One Trump supporter said that they “hate[d] [the president’s] character and what he says,” but noted that he “gets the job done.”
Biden also commanded an enormous advantage in terms of approval ratings. On a five point scale, 66.1% of respondents gave Biden a 3 or above while only 25.7% of respondents gave Trump an approval rating of 3 or above. Though slightly more participants had an extremely favorable attitude of Trump versus Biden (9.9% vs 7.2%), 62.5% of people had an extremely unfavorable attitude of Trump compared to 19.1% for Biden.
In addition to questions about grade level and candidate support, students and faculty were also asked about their political leanings on a five point scale. 51.3% of respondents reported that they were liberal or very liberal, 23% said they were conservative or very conservative, and 25.7% described themselves as moderates. Unsurprisingly, liberal students and faculty swung heavily towards Biden, while conservatives overwhelmingly supported Trump. In contrast, moderates were fairly split, with 38.5% of them choosing Joe Biden, 35.9% reporting themselves as undecided or supporting other candidates, and 25.6% backing Donald Trump.
When asked to report the most important issue to them in the election, top responses among Biden supporters included the COVID-19 pandemic (31.8%), racial justice (22.7%), and climate change (13.6%). Trump supporters chose the economy (31.4%), foreign policy (25.7%), and the COVID-19 pandemic (14.3%) as their most important issues.
Finally, students were asked if they had seen any of the presidential or vice presidential debates. Out of the 142 respondents to this question, 136 (95.8%) reported seeing the first presidential debate, a very high percentage considering that only 22% of the general American population watched that debate. Following the first debate, viewership among Pingry students and faculty declined, with 81.7% of respondents reporting they had seen the vice presidential debate and 76.8% saying they had seen the second presidential debate.
The results of this mock election are eerily similar to those from the 2008 Pingry election poll, when Democrat Barack Obama won 55% of the vote, crushing his Republican opponent John McCain, who only won 29%. 2008 was a year of blowout victories for Democrats nationwide, as they won control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives, powered by overwhelming support from young voters. If the 2008 poll was in fact a predictor of how young people voted 12 years ago, the results of the 2020 poll could foreshadow a major victory for the Democrats this November.
