The District
The NJ 7th district is comprised of Short Hills, Hunterdon County, and large parts of the Morris, Somerset, Union, and Warren counties. The 7th also contains the majority of the Pingry community. Demographically the 7th district is 71% white but also has a large 19% immigrant population (primary Asian). The 7th is also about 1.3-1.5 times wealthier than the NJ average depending on the measure used, has a poverty rate of 5.3 percent (about one half the NJ average), and is the 3rd wealthiest district in the country by median household income.The college attainment rate (about 1.3 times the NJ average) is 52.4% making the district one of the most educated. With regards to age and gender it is roughly in line with NJ and US averages.
*all demographic information pulled from 2016 ACS data
Electorally the NJ 7th has been historically Republican since the redistricting in 2000. Republicans have held the seat every year since then and with the exception of the 2006 election, have won by at least 8% every time. Leonard Lance (the current incumbent) has won by more than 9% every time since he began running in 2008. However during the 2016 presidential election Clinton won the district 49% – 48%.
*election data pulled from Ballotpedia
The Candidates
Leonard Lance, the Republican incumbent, holds views that differ from the Republican party line on several issues.
He has repeatedly expressed his belief in the validity of climate change and his voting record includes bans on Arctic and offshore drilling, funding for getting old and inefficient cars of off the roads, and implementing carbon limits. However, he has also voted against subsidies for renewable energy and has sought to restrict some of the EPA’s powers.
On taxes he is largely with the Republican party, however, he opposed the recent tax bill because he oppose the limit to state and local tax deductions (SALT) which disproportionately benefit high-tax states like New Jersey. He has also sought to reinstate this deduction in various forms since the tax bill passed.
On the Mueller investigation he has strongly supported Mueller and has sponsored legislation to prevent further electoral interference by Russia or other foreign powers.
On guns, healthcare, immigration, and foreign policy he is largely with the Republican party. As several Malinowski attack ads have stated he is largely against more expansive gun control. Although he was strongly in favor of banning bump stocks and has supported restrictions on gun purchases for those with mental illness, he generally maintains a similar view point to the NRA with an overall A rating. On health care, while he voted against the most recent attempt at an ObamaCare repeal, he is against a single-payer or other national health care system. On immigration he strongly supports President Trump and has a hardline view on amnesty. Finally, he is strongly pro-Israel and also supports expanding the powers of the US intelligence community. Most notably, he supports an expansion of Patriot Act powers which allow the NSA to perform surveillance on US citizens.
Tom Malinowski, the Democratic challenger, holds many similar views to Lance on local issues but tends toward the Democratic party line on national issues. His prior governmental experience is primarily in the State Department under both the Clinton and Obama administrations, where he worked to uphold human rights both abroad and at home.
On tax reform, he is similar to Lance in that he wishes to reinstate state/property tax deductions. However, he has far broader issues with the Republican tax bill and seeks to reverse the tax cuts in upper tax brackets created by the most recent tax bill. With the increased tax revenue he would like to see significant expansions to both Social Security and Medicaid in addition to shrinking the deficit.
He also wishes to expand federal funding of public schools. On education policy his views are broadly in line with the National Education Association (NEA) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) . He seeks to decrease the amount of standardized testing, create universal pre-k, and increase teacher pay.
Malinowski is broadly aligned with unions and other labor advocates, he favors the $15 national minimum wage, stronger equal pay protection for women, increased support and protection for unions, etc.
His largest differences are in immigration policy and gun control. Not only does Malinowski strongly support the DACA program he also supports greater protections for migrant workers. On guns, Malinowski supports a wide array of restriction on the purchase, sale, usage, and carrying of various types of firearms and ammunition.
On national security, environmental issues, and the Mueller investigation the two are similar. Malinowski has a somewhat stronger position on environmental issues and the Mueller investigation while Lance is arguably more pro-Israel.
The Polling
Polling suggests that the election strongly favors the challenger, Tom Malinowski. He has been up in nearly ever poll. 538 gives him a weighted average of +5.3% and a nearly 80% chance of winning. Lance’s primary shot at victory will be a low youth turnout as evidenced by the many Malinowski ads targeting young voters.
– Aditya Gollapudi