An incumbent Democratic Senator in a Democrat-leaning state during what many predict will be a “Blue Wave” year does not seem like a race of particular noteworthiness or deserving of much attention. With the country’s eyes fixated on Democrat-held seats in states that Trump won, like Indiana, Missouri, and Florida, or red states that have been trending more blue for the past few years like Arizona ,Georgia, or Texas, one would expect Bob Menendez’s reelection campaign to be largely ignored in the national media, much in the same way that other races featuring incumbents in strongly partisan states are. But Menendez’s race, unlike those other races, features a very unpopular incumbent taking on a well-funded opponent eager to cast himself as a redeemer of the state as allegations and questions about Menendez’s conduct continue to fly in the media.
Menendez’s corruption scandal began in April of 2015 when he was indicted on federal corruption charges for accepting favors from Dominican-born Florida eye doctor Salomon Melgen, including flights on his private jet and paid-for stays at resorts around the world. In exchange, Menendez allegedly used his status as a Senator to obtain visas for Melgen’s girlfriends, and pushed the State Department to enforce a port-security contract with the Dominican Republic that Melgen wanted. Though Menendez temporarily stepped down from his role as the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, he denied the charges and vowed to defend himself in court. Menendez and Melgen’s case ended in a mistrial, although Melgen was found guilty of Medicare fraud in Florida and has been sentenced to 17 years in prison.
Perhaps the Democrats should have recognized this and asked Menendez to not run again in 2018. If he refused they could have gotten someone else to try to primary him. Looking back, it seems feasible- Menendez’s only primary opponent, Lisa McCormick, took 37.7% of the vote and carried 7 counties despite no previous positions in politics, no wealthy backers, and no support from the Democratic machine. Instead, the Democrats now find themselves having to defend an unpopular Senator against millionaire Celgene CEO and Republican nominee Bob Hugin.
Hugin has poured $36 million of his own money into the campaign, and results are showing. According to FiveThirtyEight, Menendez holds about a 10 point lead, compared to Menendez’s last election in 2012 when he won by nearly 20 points. Hugin casts himself as something of a moderate, and has deliberately avoided talking about Donald Trump so as to appeal to centrists and independents. The cash surge combined with the Hugin campaign’s laser focus on Menendez’s scandal is showing results. According to polling by Vox Populi, which showed Menendez leading by 8 points overall, Menendez has only a 28% approval rating among New Jersey voters, lower than even the state’s satisfaction with Donald Trump at 40%. This would mean that nearly half of the voters who plan to cast their ballot for Menendez have a negative opinion of him, or do not have a view on him. In an election where turnout is expected to be high on both sides, having a large part of the voters you are counting on to deliver a victory for you being unenthusiastic is not a reassuring feeling for a campaign.
Menendez’s unpopularity comes at a time when New Jersey is at the focal point of American politics, being home to 4 Republican-held districts that are being targeted by the Democrats. These races in the 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 11th districts are all expected to be close, and an unpopular Senator at the top of the ticket is concerning to the Democratic candidates in those districts who fear Menendez’s unpopularity, especially outside of his home turf closer to New York City, could have implications for their races. Personally, as someone who volunteered to phonebank and canvas in the 11th district, we were told not to mention Menendez, or connect him to our candidate in any way when we spoke to potential voters.
Democrats see the threat and are rallying behind Menendez to hold the seat. Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic Super Pac, has recently poured $7 million into Menendez’s campaign, and Menendez has received an endorsement from Governor Phil Murphy. In addition to consolidating party support, Menendez has fired back at Hugin, criticizing his role in Celgene’s price hikes and continued monopoly on certain cancer drugs, and their battle with legislators who were trying to lower drug prices. In a year where Democrats are challenging incumbents in places that they never had before, and when their hopes for controlling the Senate are contingent on virtually everything going right for them, a question mark in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972 is the last thing they needed. Even if Menendez wins, as he is still expected to, the money spent by Democrats on his campaign could have gone towards races where the Democrats were attacking Republican seats as opposed to defending what is typically a safe Democratic one. Perhaps after this election, the Democrats will denounce Menendez and consider a primary challenge to him the next time he is up for office, but that is a long way away, and this election is rapidly approaching.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/31/nyregion/bob-menendez-senate-race-hugin.html
https://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/03/is_menendezs_republican_challenger_even_more_ethic.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header
https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NJ-Statewide-Survey-Results-10.30.18.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2018
https://www.cnn.com/2017/09/05/politics/who-is-salomon-melgen/index.html
-Tom Drizik