New Jersey 11th

Democrat Mikie Sherrill is running against Republican Jay Webber to represent New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen has represented the 11th District since 1995, but is not seeking re-election, leaving the seat open. A Democrat has not held the seat since the 1980s, but it is possible that Frelinghuysen’s retirement has created an opportunity for Democratic victory.

The 11th District centers around Morris County; it is a suburban and fairly affluent area. The district has a population of around 730,000 people. The mean household income is $147,213; around 2.2% of families have an income below the poverty line. In terms of racial demographics, 80% of the population is White, 10% Asian, and 3% African-American or Black. The district has historically leaned Republican, with more voters registered as Republican than Democratic. While Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 Presidential Election by a margin of 0.9 points, Frelinghuysen won the 2016 Congressional Election by 19 points.

Sherrill is a graduate of the US Naval Academy and previously served as Assistant U.S. Attorney in New Jersey. Sherrill spent almost 10 years on active duty in the Navy, flying missions as a helicopter pilot. She cites Donald Trump as one of her motivating factors to run for office. Sherrill has campaigned on stricter gun laws, protection of women’s healthcare, and addressing climate change. She also points to the recent tax reform bill and healthcare reform as issues she hopes to influence in Washington. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act imposed a $10,000 cap on deducting state and local taxes (SALT) from federal income returns. In an area like the 11th District where real estate and state taxes are high, these taxes could previously be deducted from how much was paid in federal taxes; now this amount is capped. Sherrill hopes to pick up support from wealthy voters who are now paying higher taxes with the SALT limitation.

Webber is a lawyer who currently serves in the New Jersey General Assembly. He previously served as the state Republican chair from 2009 to 2011. Webber has campaigned on a conservative platform, emphasizing his pro gun-rights stance, support for tighter restrictions on immigration, and anti-LGBTQ voting record. As an Assemblyman, Webber voted against the 2012 bill legalizing gay marriage in New Jersey, as well as against a 2013 bill prohibiting counseling intended to change the sexual orientation of a minor. In addition, Webber’s pro-life stance on abortion as well as an endorsement from President Trump has attracted many voters in the district. The Webber campaign has tried to attack opponent Sherrill by tying her to Senator Bob Menendez and Governor Phil Murphy.

Sherrill has a significant fundraising advantage over Webber heading into the election. According to the New York Times, Sherrill has raised around $4.2 million in comparison to Webber’s $475,000. A recent poll by Siena College and the New York Times from October 13 to October 17 shows Sherrill leading the race with around 49% of the vote, and Webber behind with around 38% of the vote. The Cook Political Report has also rated the district as leaning Democratic. However, with both candidates successfully appealing to voters in the district, it is likely to be a close race despite the odds favoring the Democratic party.

Sources

US Census Bureau:

https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=34&cd=11

Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2018

Ballotpedia:

https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_11th_Congressional_District

Weekly Standard: https://www.weeklystandard.com/sophia-buono/2018-midterms-can-jay-webber-keep-new-jerseys-11th-district-red

NPR: https://www.npr.org/2018/11/02/663655601/in-some-congressional-districts-the-tax-cut-is-actually-hurting-republican-campa

NJ Spotlight: https://www.njspotlight.com/stories/18/11/02/even-at-11th-hour-cd-11-still-attracting-big-money-names-attention/

NJ Spotlight:

https://www.njspotlight.com/stories/18/10/01/11th-district-leans-republican-but-democrats-think-sherrill-can-flip-it/

NYT: